Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Sciences Po, Grenoble
Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris, Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III
Updated with new Intro on 2/4/2023
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui • Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI
Christine Lagarde – Chère Madame la Présidente
This year used to be designated as the year when the rate of inflation will be reduced to 2% and it is not happening.
But the interest rate is pushed slowly up and the price for the energy is skyrocketing and the laying off is a deluge while the most advanced economies all they found as remedy is to tighten the belt and the pension and the retirement are the first victims of such policy that used to be a condition for loans given to the Third World countries.
C’est le Retour de la Manivelle and the Boomerang Effect that is taking place that will be succeeded by the Domino Effect at the level of business operations and value added chain cycles. … Read more
Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRIGlobal Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank My first question is when a Bank located in Europe can control … Continue reading Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank – Tate Yoko Research Institute
Synopsis & Introduction
Christine Lagarde and European Monetary Policy
Failures of the European Central Bank, an Invitation to the Recession
Several months earlier, I had written articles on the soft descent into recession through the positions of Madame Christine Lagarde and the lack of financial clarity of the decisions she had continued to promote which gave the impression that she has not completely let go of her bad reactions and recommendations made to developing countries during her presence at the head of the International Monetary Fund, which she inherited as a gift following an accident in the history of the New York Waltzes by Strauss.
Changing World Economy
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021 Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America GLOBALLEVERAGE Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme Le secteur informel du Pérou, du Brésil, de la Colombie comme au…Continue Reading →
Mrs Christine Lagarde must take on a purely European mission and not imitate the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and follow the trajectory traced by the American authorities with regard to the current conflicting economic situation into which Europe in the aftermath of the War between Russia and Ukraine.
Destroy to Build, Anarchy in Human Nature Driven by Profit at All Costs and in All Directions with no alternative but the Race for Positioning in Pole Position and at the Vanguard of the Market to effectively direct, orient and dictate the very conditions proper of this Market which should be open given the ultra-liberal ideology which structures it internally as it conditions the pace of its external relations.
Several of these aspects I had discussed in the articles in this Dossier:
Honorable Christine Lagarde – 22/7/2022 – European Central Bank
Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions:
🔵 We raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, a further step in normalising our monetary policy
🔵 More rate hikes will come. They will depend on how we see the economy and inflation developing
🔵 We also agreed on a new instrument to make sure that our policy smoothly reaches all of the euro area
For more on our decisions and what we looked at when taking them, swipe ⬅️
or visit our website https://lnkd.in/eq8hpd6Y
Yesterday we raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years. Here are three ways to find out more about our decisions:
1️⃣ Read our explainer, which sets out why we have raised rates https://lnkd.in/eQXvPUfK
2️⃣ Check out our visual statement, which explains our decisions in easy-to-understand language https://lnkd.in/enXtYSXE
3️⃣ Listen to #TheECBPodcast, where I explain the reasoning behind the hike https://t.co/Y1KpRDqueF
📸 by Sanziana Perju/ECB
Eurozone: Money and Inflation
Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia. Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in…Continue Reading → November 2, 2021
Our prior and predictive work on the Inflation and Staginflation in Europe and the economies linked to the Supply Chain coming and going out of European Countries.
#OECD#inflation rises to 
.
% in September 2022, with inflation pressures broadening beyond food and energy in most countries.
Find out more 
https://fal.cn/3tm8R
#쮋 ay’s top news 🆕 The latest #OECD #EconomicOutlook has been released:
#Russia’s war against #Ukraine will substantially slow the global economic recovery & push up #inflation.
Based on our projections, we expect OECD inflation to rise to nearly 9% this year. 💶📈
The world is set to pay a high price because of this #war. Read it here ⤵️ oe.cd/EOjun22
In Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on Friday July 22, 2022 to allow export of grains through the ports of the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — which can alleviate the food crisis that had threatened food security around the world.
The deal will enable Ukraine to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, this Russia-Ukraine deal is for $10 billion worth of grain that will be available for sale with roughly 20 million tons of last year’s harvest that can now be exported.
In the same token, the United States pledged to provide more military support to Ukraine with 270 millions of additional financing for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine. In this total financial aid, Drones will represent $100 millions while the sending of jet fighters is still in consideration as an option for the long term.
This is an updated version – Dated April 14, 2022 – 2:41 AM Ramadan Oblige – Pacific Time – Peace
Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions. What are they and what did we look at when taking them?
⚫️ The war in Ukraine is severely affecting the economy. In the near future, the economy will grow more slowly
⚫️ The war is creating new supply bottlenecks. These add to the difficulties for supply chains caused by recent pandemic measures in Asia. This is disrupting production in some sectors
⚫️ Inflation has increased significantly and will stay high over the coming months. Energy prices are by far the most important reason for this
⚫️ Our policy has to stay flexible and keep options open. Any change will depend on how the economy evolves and how we assess the outlook. We expect to conclude net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme in the third quarter of this year
Read more https://lnkd.in/erNK7jHs
RESPONSE OF Said El Mansour Cherkaoui
Ms. Christine Lagarde with all respect to the employees of the European Central Bank, in France there are two adages that we used in our Travaux Pratiques at Sciences Po Grenoble Section Eco-Fi like you did in Sciences Po Aix
🌐 Quand le Beaujolais nouveau est là, tout va
🌐 Quand le Bâtiment va, tout va.
Adage populaire datant du 19e siècle pr Martin Nadaud, maçon devenu député puis préfet
In other words, Beaujolais means consumption and construction that are increase the income of the consumers, control the inflation, reduce the bottlenecks of the supply chain management
In other words, Bâtiment means infrastructure, budget, stimulation of the growth, creation of jobs and investment in areas of higher value added through workforce development and insertion
Other economic and productive areas can be developed through stimulation of the local demands along budgetary allocations from the regional authorities like from European Central Bank and other financial institutions to develop industries and productions that can be a substitution for importations $200 million was authorized over the weekend adding the $800 million, Biden administration has committed $1 billion in aid to Ukraine
‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflation response
Joseph R. out of network 3rd+Real Estate / Equity / Quant Risk
The surreal lonely journey of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde towards inflationary delirium has already put the euro on the path of #liraization and is posing a substantial risk for European cohesion.
➡️ An unprecedented #failure of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde (reminder: once convicted on criminal charges of negligence for misuse of public funds) to act on it’s mandatory obligation is an embarrassing testimony to policy failure multiplied by institutional governance failure.
➡️ The #politicized reluctance to act in on primary mandate exposes the ordinary hard-working citizens to a hufe loss of purchasing power on their life-long retirement/insurance savings, income and social security benefits. The last CPI #inflation🚀 reading is 7.5% (higher locally and on PPI basis). 🗣 “The inflation data is speaking a clear language. The monetary policy may not miss the opportunity to counteract in timely maner” (Dr. J.Nagel, German CB on 01.04.2022)
➡️ “Living in a fantasy” 🦄 https://todayuknews.com/economy/living-in-a-fantasy-euros-founding-father-rebukes-ecb-over-inflation-response/
‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflati… todayuknews.com
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – saidcherkaoui24@gmail.com
This article is another confirmation of my warnings and writings on what is going to be faced as spiral and trendy inflationary curbes not just by the European Central Bank but by the entire financial institutions and the respective countries and economies where they conduct their operations, investments and transactions and tranfers.
The war is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, and especially on the European economy, I told Phileleftheros. The overall impact will very much depend on how long the war lasts.
In the short term, it will likely lower euro area growth and push up inflation through:
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence
➡️ disruptions to international trade
Our monetary policy decisions and the path of normalisation are entirely data-dependent. Now more than ever, we need optionality in our policy.
Read the full interview https://lnkd.in/dJ4vzJDC
Christine Lagarde assessments and declarations
Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank
Christine Lagarde
Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!
In addition to the response to pandemic, there are some other areas of progress that I’m particularly proud of:
1️⃣ Our strategy review, completed in July, which provides a strong foundation for how we will conduct monetary policy in the years ahead.
2️⃣ Our climate change roadmap which sets out how we can take climate risks into account when making our policy decisions.
3️⃣ Our decision to launch the investigative phase of a digital euro project – it will prepare us for Europe’s digital future.
Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank • 5 months ago
Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!
Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank
Christine Lagarde on supply bottlenecks as one of the elements currently pushing up inflation.
Watch again:
Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.
Ms. Christine Lagarde – European Central Bank
The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.
Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.
The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.
Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.
The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone.
This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.
Now for your sweet-short explanation on the bottlenecks, you really make me laugh. It is something we listen to at the Sidewalk Radio not from your level.
So if we want to find solutions at the level of Radio Hood, pas de tire-bouchon for the bottlenecks you have just to do like the French Hussards, faire sauter le bouchon avec un coup de sabre et voila plus de bottlenecks.
Pas mal Madame Lagarde, En garde Fendez vous comme les 3 Masterquaires.
Concerning your declaration on the Supply Chain Management, there is a large difference between what the factories can produce and when they produce it which you did not elaborate at all on this operational productivity and supply.
Second, at the level of transport logistics it is not just the maritime cargo, there are other means and vectors of transportation.
For the maritime side, I will just give you an example of my writings on how the Port of Oakland is tackling such issue with tack, here my article on this:
Port of Oakland: Giant Cranes Raised Why?
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui March 12, 2021 … Continue reading
Germany seeks to wean itself off Russian energy imports | News | DW | 25.03.2022
Economy Minister Robert Habeck has announced a plan to halve Russian oil intake by the summer.
Multiple Sources: dw, jsi/nm (AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP)
Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.
First of all, a precision shoud be underlined here that is may be influencing the contradictory decisions you are actually implementing
Attn.: Christine Lagarde
You graduate from Aix and me from Grenoble, same section: Economie et Finance, we had better teachers and profs at Sciences Po Grenoble than what you had at Sciences Po Aix because we were closer to Fondation Nationale Sciences Politiques Paris without be Haughty, I graduated before you when France could give and provide the best education by eminent minds.
Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier the week of 4/3/2022 that “three main factors are likely to take inflation higher” going forward.
“Energy prices are expected to stay higher for longer,” “pressure on food inflation is likely to increase,” and “global manufacturing bottlenecks are likely to persist in certain sectors.”
Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.
“Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending,” Lagarde said in a speech in Cyprus on Wednesday March 30. 2022.
“Soaring energy costs sparked by the war in Ukraine have caused a surge in consumer prices within the eurozone, the EU’s statistics agency said on Friday 4/1/2022. Annual inflation in the eurozone reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% in February, Eurostat reported. It is the fifth straight month that inflation in the eurozone has set a record. Energy prices increased 44.7% in March, up from 32% in February, according to the Eurostat, as the European Union [European Commission] found itself embroiled in an oil-and-gas crunch caused by tensions with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The rise in inflation is increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise its key interest rate.
Here we go at last recognized the failure of her own policy:
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned Wednesday 30 March, 2022 that a prolonged Ukraine conflict will mean the cost of living will continue to soar, hampering hopes of a post-COVID recovery.”
Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.
The Inflation is here and will endure with Russia Requesting the use of Rubles in all international purchases and China will follow this course and next is India. It is just a matter of time that BRICS Development Bank will advance its pawn toward becoming a global player in the international finance space with no borders like all these western based international financial institutions.
Currently the and what Ms. Presidente Christine Lagarde is pursuing “Monetarist Policy” added to the reasons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions are all playing in the field of the rise and consolidation of alternative and parallel financial institution coming from emerging economies and their followers. Whatever the importance of these reactions, there a disruptive impact and dispersion as well as diversion of financial transactions that are going to change the international financial system and all the related regional banks not only as regulator of the market but more importantly as a hub of all the financial transactions related to international trade and the value of goods exchanged.
Russia★China & Europe★USA
Russia wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian natural gas in Rubles. That’s a new directive from President Vladimir Putin … Continue Reading →
Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and the sanctions that followed have meant spiraling energy costs across the EU. Inflation in Germany is at its highest since reunification in 1990.
These are numbers that any Media outlet can verify by having their own estimates and calculations. In fact, on Friday April 1, 2022, Germany’s largest banking institution said rising inflation could be hard to stem because of an energy price shock sparked by sanctions that are exacerbating supply chain problems.
“The rhino in the room has been unleashed and may now prove difficult to stop,” Deutsche Bank Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting said in a research note, adding that consumer price rises in the United States had breached 7%.
“Longer-term issues such as the shrinking workforce and the growing share of GDP generated by labor-intensive services are likely to remain and inflation is therefore unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level in the years to come.”
“In the developed economies, already elevated inflation rates may now be driven even higher, given the conflict-induced oil and gas price shock. Sanctions, as well as businesses’ halting their operations in Russia, are exacerbating supply chain problems.” Nolting said economic growth in the United States would outstrip that of the eurozone in 2022 and 2023 because of the conflict in Ukraine and the European Union’s dependence on energy imports.
Attn.: Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank
For sure that oil surge in price has a direct impact on the inflation push up through:
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence IN BIZZARE BAZZZAR
➡️ disruptions to international trade NOT NEW
Inflation came from the monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank since 5 years ago and from factors that were not tackled during their rise, including the Pandemic
So where is the contingency strategy?
Risks have not completely disappeared, because progress in immunization remained slow in many parts of the world, pressures on global supply chains and rising prices for energy posed new challenges to the strength of the recovery and the outlook for inflation / THIS ASSESSMENT IS FROM 2021.
Since 1 November 2019 you are at the ECB So please do not blame the present time.
Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank
Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia.
Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in Europe but to the trade partners of the European Countries. Energy prices are rising, threatening household budgets and corporate profits (except for the energy sector). In addition, the expected disruption of sanctions against Russia and Belarus will impact trade flows, which could further dampen the global economy, and Europe will be the first to suffer.
Russia was dependent on SWIFT, some 300 Russian banks and other financial institutions use the SWIFT system, and Russia is ranked second (behind the United States) in number of users of this platform. The reason for the high level of dependence stems from Russian energy exports which are denominated in US dollars. For this, the European Commission was reluctant to ban #Russia from SWIFT due to the dramatic impact it would have – on oil prices. Some fear this will create systemic global financial risk. For Russia, given its geographical location and the diversity of its international partners and the support it currently receives from China for its international transactions, the impact expected and even qualified as “Nuclear Financial Bomb” by Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, will not have the effects desired or expected by the rest of the Western European Leaders.
Update: April 3, 2022 – 12:37 AM Pacific Time Originally published at LinkedIn on August 31, 2015: Said El Mansour
BRICS and the Building of Financial Great Wall – 🌎 ★ GLOBAL 🌎★🌎 LEVERAGE ★ 🌎
In fact, Russia has not been completely banned from SWIFT entirely – the targets of the bans are selected aiming specific banks, which appears to be intended to make it more difficult to avoid previous sanctions imposed on these banks. Energy exports are apparently excluded from these sanctions, although there is a risk at the level of each transaction of the energy exports that ca be more difficult to negotiate and settle, which can always cause the rate of inflation to implode, especially for energy, metal and grain prices.
Better to find other financial instruments to support the Growth and the Productivity of European Firms especially the Women, Mid Sized and Small companies that they still have to compete at the level of the international market with the oligopolies and the conglomerates that do not respect any national border, just remember what has predicted JJSS in his famous plaidoyer for the construction of Europe with allegiance to these giants transnational challenges.
Ms. Christine Lagarde with the financial policies you have been advocating in regards to the inflation and the position you took, that is “Wait and See” is an evidence that you have not completely turned the page of the IMF and the World Bank influences in designing strategies of recovery and stimulation of growth that they included in their conditionalities toward developing countries and now you are applying for European countries.
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. – Update 3/5/2022
Monetarism, Central Bank and Developmentalism
European Central Bank
Updated 12/1/2021
KEY POINTS
Euro zone inflation rises to 4.1% for October, hitting a new 13-year high
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.★
Madame la Présidente de European Central Bank
- The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.
- Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.
- The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.
- Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.
- The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone. This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.
- Finally, a voice is expressed on the reasons for the passage and the continual retrograde of the formerly colonized countries from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries and currently sinking into the level of subcapitalist countries.
- This subcapitalization was accentuated by the globalization of direct and indirect foreign investments and their impact on social structuring and the consolidation of local elites which facilitate the internalization of the demands of international financiers. Poverty has consolidated and spread like an economic virus in subcapitalist societies weakening their participation in world growth thus accentuating recessions and even current inflation.
- The manipulation of the prices of raw materials as well as the prices of consumer products is the result of this complicity between the supporters of the Global Supply Chain and these governing elites, including national banks and transnational financial institutions. The United States has launched an investigation into this matter.
- Likewise, the Eurozone is witnessing an inflation rate of 4.9% from one year to the next, which has never been the case since the launch of the euro in 1999.
- Finally a voice is talking about the reasons how formerly colonized countries emigrated from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries to reach actually the statute and the privilege of currently sinking into the deep subcapitalism.
Euro zone inflation figures for November are historic. At 4.9% year-on-year, European inflation has never reached such levels since the launch of the euro in 1999. Rising commodity prices (energy prices rose 27% on year in November), combined with strong economic growth and the emergence of bottlenecks in industry continue to explain this an extraordinary return of inflation that no one believed until a few months ago. Recall that the dominant theme before the Covid crisis in early 2020 was the risk of deflation which had threatened the United States and Europe, like Japan, for decades.
With such figures the dilemma of the ECB and all the central banks becomes more and more untenable. How to stop extreme monetary policies of zero interest rates along with liquidity injections in order to fight against this inflationary peril can generate high risk of recession and threatened purchasing power and consumption.
Neither the ECB nor any other central bank has yet made a decision, and is unlikely to do so quickly given the uncertainties over the Omicron variant and its potential consequences for growth and financial markets.
The official objective of the ECB is still … 2%, while another major risk will then appear: the impact of massive rate hikes on debt service. If interest rates are skyrocketing, situation will get out of control and will require a budgetary austerity.
Updated 27/11/2021
Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank 19h • Edited • 19 hours ago
We do not expect the current rise in inflation to last, I explained in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung editor Gerald Braunberger.
A couple of other important points covered:
➡️ If we at the European Central Bank were to tighten monetary policy now, we would expect to see the impact in 18 months’ time. But our forecasts show inflation falling back by then.
We would cause unemployment and not have countered the current high inflation. I would find that wrong.
➡️ Interest rates can rise when we see inflation reaching our 2% target over the medium term, durably and sustainably – meaning not just for a short period of time.
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021
Madame Lagarde, inflation rates are increasing around the world. Inflation in the United States is 6.2%, while in Germany a rate of close to 6% is expected for November. Is inflation spiralling out of control?
At the European Central Bank we are of course monitoring that very closely. And not only because our primary objective is maintaining price stability and inflation is a crucial indicator of that. But also because we know that inflation affects people. Those who are less privileged and less well off are the ones who suffer the most from inflation. That’s why we need to keep looking at it very carefully.
Do you feel any effects of rising inflation in your own daily life?
Of course, the rise in energy prices is the most noticeable. After all, energy price inflation now accounts for around half of the high inflation rates. You can’t help noticing the price increase when you fill up your tank at a petrol station or buy heating oil for the winter. As a French person, I keep a close eye on the prices for good bread at the bakery. That stands out at the moment and is making many people worried – but we expect that this rise in inflation will not last. It will subside next year. We expect that the inflation rates will start to fall from as early as January.
What makes you so sure? Won’t there be second-round effects, if the trade unions demand higher wages to compensate for the higher prices?
Judging by what we know from surveys of employers and trade unions so far, no strong inflationary pressure is to be expected from that front for the time being. The negotiated wage settlements have been very moderate so far. For next year, somewhat higher wage demands are partly to be expected. But based on what we are seeing, the settlements should not be on a scale that might trigger a wage-price spiral.
Do you not think that employees could become nervous and nonetheless demand compensation for inflation if inflation rates now hit a level that has not been seen for many years?
That does not seem to be the case at the moment. And if we look at inflation expectations, both those which can be derived from the financial markets and those resulting from surveys, then most people do not expect higher inflation in the longer term. Inflation expectations have risen, but they are below our inflation target of 2%. We don’t see any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.
Do you personally never have any doubts that inflation might persist for longer than your experts are currently predicting?
I ask myself this question again and again. To answer it you have to consider what is driving the current high rates of inflation. I would distinguish three groups of driving factors. The first are statistical base effects which are related to the pandemic, such as the VAT reduction in Germany last year and its reversal, which are now sharply pushing up the price increase relative to the previous year. Similar passing pandemic effects can be seen in respect of package holidays, for example. These factors will automatically disappear next year, as they will fall out of the year-on-year comparison. Supply bottlenecks are a second group of drivers. Demand surged after the end of the first lockdown whereas supply is still constrained. These bottlenecks in, say, computer chips, containers and road haulage capacity are obviously persisting for longer than we had initially thought. But the situation will gradually improve next year in that respect too. The third group is energy prices. We expect that energy price developments will at least stabilise next year.
But surely nobody can know for certain how oil prices, say, will develop next year?
We at least see good reasons why the strong price increase in energy will not last into the second half of 2022. There is in any case no expectation in the oil futures markets that the price increase will continue. But we are seeking to evaluate and consider as many sources of information on this topic as we can.
Read the full conversation – Click here
Christine Lagarde • FollowingPresident of the European Central Bank 2w • 2 weeks ago
At today’s Eurogroup meeting we discussed the positive economic outlook in the euro area, with monetary and fiscal policies supporting a strong recovery. We are confident that the current higher inflation is transitory. We also exchanged views on the goals of a digital euro.
Response of / Reponse de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui
In a world subdivided with respect to natural resources and by the degree of participation in the aggregate supply and demand, the signs of the crisis represent only indicators for the international financial institutions whose firm belief is that the market will eventually be capable of correcting its excesses, even going so far as to adopt the “new paradigm” thesis.
With this self-assurance based on the belief that growth now passes through increasingly long economic cycles and swift oscillations with higher development rates, with low inflation and increased productivity, thanks to efficiency and innovation brought about by new technologies.
Rostow would be delighted and Keynes would be impressed while Friedman would be relieved, all without any consideration for the development of the human factor.
For these decision makers, there are collateral damages in the form of frequent financial misadventures, with all the human and political tragedies that they entail, they remain only inevitable misadventures on the way to the economic El Dorado.
The interest rate serves as a lever such as the “Invisible Hand” which indirectly regulates any market integrated in the financial and commercial world. It is widely accepted that financial instability is deeply rooted in the financial crisis affecting the functioning of markets which imposes recommendations on emerging and developing economies with the sole aim of making them beneficiaries of loans and financial transfers.
These indirect capital movements serve to alleviate the impact of expenditures and deficits resulting from investments undertaken by emerging and developing countries in the establishment of infrastructure and transformative operations in order to be able to compete with their peer countries for the attractivity of foreign direct investments.
The broad incentives and financial facilities offered to foreign investors coupled with the infrastructure spending added to the low return received in exchange for heavy investments and long term depreciation all reduce the income of their treasuries. States of developing economies are thus reduced to reach the ceiling on external debt.
However, some time ago, even the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank recognized that a large number of their interventions did not benefit emerging and developing countries which are going through a very severe crisis, and that the medicine administered in the form of Hiring of consultants had disastrous second-effects and the prescriptions presented in the form of recommendations proved to be poisonous and even final as overdoses.
Publications by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Related Topics
Some of my publications related to the topic addressed by Presidente Christine Lagarde can be used as complement for my aforementioned comment while presenting the role of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in shaping the evolution of the World Economy with emphasis on the economies of the Southern countries. (The articles are written en Français et/and in English).
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Western Diplomacy Blend of Waltz and Petrushka: USA – Europe Union – Russia Loves and jealousies of two figurines: US and EU along with one puppet: Ukraine Bringing Freedom to Ukraine, like liberating Women in Afghanistan and giving the best gift in life to Iraq and Democracy to Libya and Syria, Who is Next Reserve your seat for the next Arab Spring Trip They close … Continue reading Western Diplomacy Blend of Waltz and Petrushka: USA – Europe Union – Russia –
Brexit or not Brexit, United Kingdom and European Union in India to Break Ties of the BRICS to Russia
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. 5/5/2022 BRICS (Brazil – Russia – India – China – South Africa) Russia – India – China triangle In particular, the formation of the BRICS group in 2010 emphasized that “the world is undergoing significant and rapid changes that highlight the need for corresponding transformations of global governance in all relevant areas.” Its members have also argued that … Continue readingBrexit or not Brexit, United Kingdom and European Union in India to Break Ties of the BRICS to Russia –
Russia★China & Europe★USA
European Commission As the brutality of the Russian invasion increased, the European Union approved the fifth package of sanctions against the Kremlin’s war machine. These measures are broader and harsher and dig even deeper into the Russian economy. They follow atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine under Russian occupation. They target six main issues: import of coal from Russia transactions with 4 … Continue reading Russia★China & Europe★USA –
Nationalism Versus Liberalism: War and Finance in Europe
Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Kyiv and western Ukraine as it prepares to shift focus to the eastern Donbas region. The New York Times says Russia’s strategy seems to involve “degrading” Ukraine’s capabilities across the country before renewing its offensive to the east. Meanwhile, Russia has warned the U.S. and NATO that they risk “unpredictable consequences” by continuing to arm Ukraine with “sensitive” … Continue reading Nationalism Versus Liberalism: War and Finance in Europe –
European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation
Honorable Christine Lagarde 6/9/2022 Our prior and predictive work on the Inflation and Staginflation in Europe and the economies linked to the Supply Chain coming and going out of European Countries, for more details read more in the following link: European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation AFRICANA ENTREPRISE ★ GLBAL LEVERAGE ★ MoroccoTech European Commission European Central Bank OECD – OCDE … Continue reading European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation –
Sanctions Against Russia Oligarch – Billionaires: People Reactions
US seizes Russian oligarch’s yacht The U.S. has taken possession of a superyacht said to be owned by a Russian billionaire and has filed a warrant to seize two private jets owned by another oligarch.View news story 3,855 2,306 comments 647 shares Elmahdi Oummih(He/Him) 1st degree connection1stManaging Director at Medical Device Group 3w Nothing Biden Administration/Congress has said about the Conflict in Ukraine has been … Continue reading Sanctions Against Russia Oligarch – Billionaires: People Reactions –
Russian Oil Embargo or in Barco !
EU countries announced last night that they had agreed to a substantial ban on the import of Russian oil. After opposition voiced by Hungary, imports will only be halted on oil that arrives by sea, but the sanctions still account for two-thirds of all Russian oil supplied to the EU. Russia had been delivering 27 percent of the EU’s imported oil and was receiving roughly … Continue reading Russian Oil Embargo or in Barco ! –
Look at the Roots of Genocide: Russia – Ukraine War of Rhetoric
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Original Title: Crying Genocide: Use and Abuse of Political Rhetoric in Russia and Ukraine MATTHEW KUPFER, THOMAS DE WAAL JULY 28, 2014 Summary: The word “genocide” has long been abused in Eastern Europe. In the current Ukraine crisis, such fiery rhetoric is fueling a dangerous conflict and hindering reconciliation. Rinat Akhmetov, a powerful oligarch who had been wavering in the conflict … Continue reading Look at the Roots of Genocide: Russia – Ukraine War of Rhetoric –
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – USA 15 Janvier 2021 Sciences Po, Grenoble Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III During the 1980s, the differences between non-Western countries and Third World countries became evident with regard to economic changes and progress at the level of the participation in the new industrial division of labor and the implementation of industrial strategy. East … Continue reading
The Bubble Triangle
Written By William Quinn When we started researching historical bubbles, we were surprised by how much the different episodes had in common. They always seemed to occur when there was abundant money or credit, they always seemed to occur in assets that had recently become much easier to buy and sell, and they always involved … Continue reading
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Le futur de la cryptomonnaie #Cryptomoney #cryptomonnaie
Réponse of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. ★
For the moment it is a pure scam like the casinos. A currency which floats without direction, nor productive and growing added value and which is neither based on an monetary reserve.
This reserve should be a surplus of which several interbank transactions verify and sanction, control and increase its transfer base, convertibility [example of Central Banks and LIBOR] and achievements as a form of deposit, exchange, conversion , settlement, loan and support for productions integrated into the international regional, national and interbank exchange circuit.
Add to that, Cryptomania is not used for payment of debts, financial obligations such as taxes.
If all these procedures do not exist in the fiduciary identity and the financial value of Cryptomania, it cannot therefore claim an institutional financial legitimacy and legal monetary .
It is neither the number of participants, nor the level of transactions, nor the amount achieved, nor the slogans and propagandist speeches that will give legitimacy to the Cryptocracy and Cryptorobotech.
Waiting for Godot – Sidna Kdar for better
Crypto Casino Royal – CryptoMania
Posted December 5, 2021 – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Sciences Po, GrenobleInstitut de Recherche Economique et de Planification, GrenobleInstitut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, ParisUniversité de la Sorbonne, Paris III Bitcoin plunges overnight – CNN 04/12/2021 – Bitcoin prices plunged overnight to a low of about $43,000. The famous infamous Dame which I baptized as…Continue Reading → December 5, 2021
Eurozone: Money and Inflation
Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia. Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in…Continue Reading → November 2, 2021
