Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Initially published November 2, 2021 1:05 pm

Dossier: Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and European Central Bank

URL: https://www.globalleverage.wordpress.com/2021/11/02/ecb-eurozone-money-inflation/

Stagflation has been here for long time, what is here is deep recession that will be only reduced by the Federal spending to stimulate the growth and the consumption as well as demand for heavy equipment including the arm sales and race taking place around the world.

New forms of instability is needed around the world also to instill fear and increase the spending and purchase of weapons.

These purchases will be financed through loans and credits which will increase the demand for the Euro and the Dollar and give a stimulus to the growth in western economy and support the need to keep the interest rate at the level needed to be in accordance to the demand and the rate of convertibility of the dollar and the euro.

The increase of the external debt for countries that are hesitant in joining the sanctions against Russia and the distancing from China will be exposed to the reduction of their revenues coming from their exports, given that the primary goods and natural commodities will have their pricing relatively lower to the manufactured products and the weapons.

In time of scarcity of international capital and foreign direct investments, external debt will be the leverage to flat the playing field and recuperate the excess of dollars and euro floating in the international market given that the increase of interest rate can be a double sword hurting the economy through the reduction of investment and bank loans.

A Man of the Past Century who have Predicted the Next Century

His name is Rodolph Hilferding

Stagflation has been here for long time, what is here is deep recession that will be only reduced by the Federal spending to stimulate the growth and the consumption as well as demand for heavy equipment including the arm sales and race taking place around the world.

Read more at this link:

Learning from Hilferding’s Finance Capital: Money, banking and crisis tendencies

Note by … Continue reading Learning from Hilferding’s Finance Capital: Money, banking and crisis tendencies

Africa Reports International Affairs World Economy


🆕📈#OECD #inflation rises to 🔟.5⃣% in September 2022, with inflation pressures broadening beyond food and energy in most countries.

Find out more ⤵️
https://fal.cn/3tm8R

One of the initial research conducted on the European Monetary System and published in 1992 at Golden Gate University Magazine by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Synopsis & Introduction

Failures of the European Central Bank, an Invitation to the Recession

Several months earlier, I had written articles on the soft descent into recession through the positions of Madame Christine Lagarde and the lack of financial clarity of the decisions she had continued to promote which gave the impression that she has not completely let go of her bad reactions and recommendations made to developing countries during her presence at the head of the International Monetary Fund, which she inherited as a gift following an accident in the history of the New York Waltzes by Strauss.

Changing World Economy

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021 Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America GLOBALLEVERAGE Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme Le secteur informel du Pérou, du Brésil, de la Colombie comme au…Continue Reading →

Défaillances Européenne de la Banque Centrale et Invitation à la Récession

Plusieurs mois plus tôt, j’avais rédigé des articles sur la descente en douceur vers la récession a travers les prises de position de Madame Christine Lagarde et le manque de clarté financière des décisions qu’elle avait continué de promouvoir qui donnaient l’impression qu’elle ne s’est pas complètement dessaisi de ses mauvaises réactions et recommandations faites aux pays en voie de développement lors de sa présence a la tête du Fonds Monétaire International qu’elle a hérité comme un cadeau suite à un accident de la petite histoire des valses New Yorkaises de Strauss.

Economie Mondiale en Mutation

Les Pétrodollars et le quadruplement du prix du pétrole avait effectivement rempli les caisses des Etats exportateurs du pétrole alors que les pays importateurs de l’occident traversèrent une crise sans précédent qui fut aggravée par leur propre acharnement interne et externe de se concurrencer sur le marché international, une phase de transition dont les grands contours. … Lire la suite →

Mrs Christine Lagarde must take on a purely European mission and not imitate the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and follow the trajectory traced by the American authorities with regard to the current conflicting economic situation into which Europe in the aftermath of the War between Russia and Ukraine.

Destroy to Build, Anarchy in Human Nature Driven by Profit at All Costs and in All Directions with no alternative but the Race for Positioning in Pole Position and at the Vanguard of the Market to effectively direct, orient and dictate the very conditions proper of this Market which should be open given the ultra-liberal ideology which structures it internally as it conditions the pace of its external relations.

Several of these aspects I had discussed in the articles in this Dossier:

Madame Christine Lagarde doit s’investir d’une mission purement européenne et non d’imiter la Federal Reserve Bank of New York et suivre la trajectoire tracée par les autorités américaines en ce qui concerne l’actuel situation économique conflictuelle dans laquelle s’est engouffrée l’Europe a la suite de la Guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine.

Détruire pour Construire, l’Anarchie dans la Nature Humaine Conduite par le Profit à Tous les Prix et a tout Azimut sans alternative que la Course au Positionnement en Pole Position et en Avant Garde du Marché pour effectivement diriger, orienter et dicter les conditions mêmes propre de ce Marché qui devrait être ouvert vu l’idéologie ultralibérale qui le structure à l’intérieur comme elle conditionne l’allure de ses rapports extérieurs.

Plusieurs de ces aspects je les avais abordé dans les articles figurant dans ce Dossier:


Honorable Christine Lagarde – 22/7/2022 European Central Bank

European Central Bank

Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions:
🔵 We raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, a further step in normalising our monetary policy
🔵 More rate hikes will come. They will depend on how we see the economy and inflation developing
🔵 We also agreed on a new instrument to make sure that our policy smoothly reaches all of the euro area
For more on our decisions and what we looked at when taking them, swipe ⬅️

or visit our website https://lnkd.in/eq8hpd6Y

Yesterday we raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years. Here are three ways to find out more about our decisions:

1️⃣ Read our explainer, which sets out why we have raised rates https://lnkd.in/eQXvPUfK
2️⃣ Check out our visual statement, which explains our decisions in easy-to-understand language  https://lnkd.in/enXtYSXE
3️⃣ Listen to #TheECBPodcast, where I explain the reasoning behind the hike  https://t.co/Y1KpRDqueF

📸 by Sanziana Perju/ECB


Eurozone: Money and Inflation

Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia. Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in…Continue Reading → November 2, 2021

Eurozone: Monnaie et Inflation

European Central Bank Débat sur la Monnaie: Economie Politique ou Politique Economique Said El Mansour Cherkaoui 25/9/19 Oakland USA Sciences Po, Grenoble Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III Publié par Said El Mansour Cherkaouiavril 28, 2020 Publié dans Cours en Ligne, Développement Economique, Programme de Formation Étiquettes :Cours en Ligne, Développement Economique, Programme…Continue Reading → February 12, 2022


6/9/2022

Our prior and predictive work on the Inflation and Staginflation in Europe and the economies linked to the Supply Chain coming and going out of European Countries.

🆕📈 #OECD#inflation rises to 🔟.5⃣% in September 2022, with inflation pressures broadening beyond food and energy in most countries.

Find out more ⤵️
https://fal.cn/3tm8R

OECD – OCDE 432,251 followers – 6/9/2022 • 19 hours ago

#쮋 ay’s top news 🆕 The latest #OECD #EconomicOutlook has been released:

#Russia’s war against #Ukraine will substantially slow the global economic recovery & push up #inflation. Based on our projections, we expect OECD inflation to rise to nearly 9% this year. 💶📈

The world is set to pay a high price because of this #war. Read it here ⤵️ oe.cd/EOjun22



In Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on Friday July 22, 2022 to allow export of grains through the ports of the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — which can alleviate the food crisis that had threatened food security around the world.


The deal will enable Ukraine to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, this Russia-Ukraine deal is for $10 billion worth of grain that will be available for sale with roughly 20 million tons of last year’s harvest that can now be exported.

In the same token, the United States pledged to provide more military support to Ukraine with 270 millions of additional financing for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine. In this total financial aid, Drones will represent $100 millions while the sending of jet fighters is still in consideration as an option for the long term.


This is an updated version – Dated April 14, 2022 – 2:41 AM Ramadan Oblige – Pacific Time – Peace

European Central Bank

European Central Bank

Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions. What are they and what did we look at when taking them?
⚫️ The war in Ukraine is severely affecting the economy. In the near future, the economy will grow more slowly
⚫️ The war is creating new supply bottlenecks. These add to the difficulties for supply chains caused by recent pandemic measures in Asia. This is disrupting production in some sectors
⚫️ Inflation has increased significantly and will stay high over the coming months. Energy prices are by far the most important reason for this
⚫️ Our policy has to stay flexible and keep options open. Any change will depend on how the economy evolves and how we assess the outlook. We expect to conclude net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme in the third quarter of this year

Read more https://lnkd.in/erNK7jHs

RESPONSE OF Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

European Central Bank


Ms. Christine Lagarde with all respect to the employees of the European Central Bank, in France there are two adages that we used in our Travaux Pratiques at Sciences Po Grenoble Section Eco-Fi like you did in Sciences Po Aix

🌐 Quand le Beaujolais nouveau est là, tout va 
🌐 Quand le Bâtiment va, tout va.
Adage populaire datant du 19e siècle pr Martin Nadaud, maçon devenu député puis préfet

In other words, Beaujolais means consumption and construction that are increase the income of the consumers, control the inflation, reduce the bottlenecks of the supply chain management
In other words, Bâtiment means infrastructure, budget, stimulation of the growth, creation of jobs and investment in areas of higher value added through workforce development and insertion

Other economic and productive areas can be developed through stimulation of the local demands along budgetary allocations from the regional authorities like from European Central Bank and other financial institutions to develop industries and productions that can be a substitution for importations $200 million was authorized over the weekend adding the $800 million, Biden administration has committed $1 billion in aid to Ukraine


‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflation response

Joseph R. out of network 3rd+Real Estate / Equity / Quant Risk

The surreal lonely journey of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde towards inflationary delirium has already put the euro on the path of #liraization and is posing a substantial risk for European cohesion.
➡️ An unprecedented #failure of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde (reminder: once convicted on criminal charges of negligence for misuse of public funds) to act on it’s mandatory obligation is an embarrassing testimony to policy failure multiplied by institutional governance failure.
➡️ The #politicized reluctance to act in on primary mandate exposes the ordinary hard-working citizens to a hufe loss of purchasing power on their life-long retirement/insurance savings, income and social security benefits. The last CPI #inflation🚀 reading is 7.5% (higher locally and on PPI basis). 🗣 “The inflation data is speaking a clear language. The monetary policy may not miss the opportunity to counteract in timely maner” (Dr. J.Nagel, German CB on 01.04.2022)

➡️ “Living in a fantasy” 🦄 https://todayuknews.com/economy/living-in-a-fantasy-euros-founding-father-rebukes-ecb-over-inflation-response/


Said El Mansour Cherkaouisaidcherkaoui24@gmail.com

This article is another confirmation of my warnings and writings on what is going to be faced as spiral and trendy inflationary curbes not just by the European Central Bank but by the entire financial institutions and the respective countries and economies where they conduct their operations, investments and transactions and tranfers.

The war is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, and especially on the European economy, I told Phileleftheros. The overall impact will very much depend on how long the war lasts.
 
In the short term, it will likely lower euro area growth and push up inflation through:
 
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence 
➡️ disruptions to international trade
 
Our monetary policy decisions and the path of normalisation are entirely data-dependent. Now more than ever, we need optionality in our policy.
 
Read the full interview https://lnkd.in/dJ4vzJDC

Version Française: Eurozone: Monnaie et Inflation

European Central Bank Débat sur la Monnaie: Economie Politique ou Politique Economique Said El Mansour Cherkaoui 25/9/19 Oakland USA I Publié par Said El Mansour Cherkaoui avril 28, 2020 Publié dans Cours en Ligne, Développement Economique, Programme de Formation Étiquettes …Continuer de lire →


Christine Lagarde assessments and declarations

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank

The pandemic has been a challenge like no other and I’m glad to say that the euro area economy is now firmly in recovery mode.

Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!

In addition to the response to pandemic, there are some other areas of progress that I’m particularly proud of:

1️⃣ Our strategy review, completed in July, which provides a strong foundation for how we will conduct monetary policy in the years ahead.

2️⃣ Our climate change roadmap which sets out how we can take climate risks into account when making our policy decisions.

3️⃣ Our decision to launch the investigative phase of a digital euro project – it will prepare us for Europe’s digital future.

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank • 5 months ago

Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!


Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank

Christine Lagarde on supply bottlenecks as one of the elements currently pushing up inflation.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks at a news conference on the outcome of the Governing Council meeting, in Frankfurt, Germany, October 28, 2021.

Watch again:


European Central Bank

European Central Bank 367,383 followers • 5 months ago

Watch again: President Christine Lagarde on supply bottlenecks as one of the elements currently pushing up inflation.


Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

Ms. Christine LagardeEuropean Central Bank

The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.

Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.

The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.

Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.

The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone.

This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.

Now for your sweet-short explanation on the bottlenecks, you really make me laugh. It is something we listen to at the Sidewalk Radio not from your level.

So if we want to find solutions at the level of Radio Hood, pas de tire-bouchon for the bottlenecks you have just to do like the French Hussards, faire sauter le bouchon avec un coup de sabre et voila plus de bottlenecks.

Pas mal Madame Lagarde, En garde Fendez vous comme les 3 Masterquaires.

Concerning your declaration on the Supply Chain Management, there is a large difference between what the factories can produce and when they produce it which you did not elaborate at all on this operational productivity and supply.

Second, at the level of transport logistics it is not just the maritime cargo, there are other means and vectors of transportation.

For the maritime side, I will just give you an example of my writings on how the Port of Oakland is tackling such issue with tack, here my article on this:

Port of Oakland: Giant Cranes Raised Why?

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui March 12, 2021 … Continue reading

Germany seeks to wean itself off Russian energy imports | News | DW | 25.03.2022

Economy Minister Robert Habeck has announced a plan to halve Russian oil intake by the summer. 

Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

First of all, a precision shoud be underlined here that is may be influencing the contradictory decisions you are actually implementing


Attn.: Christine Lagarde

You graduate from Aix and me from Grenoble, same section: Economie et Finance, we had better teachers and profs at Sciences Po Grenoble than what you had at Sciences Po Aix because we were closer to Fondation Nationale Sciences Politiques Paris without be Haughty, I graduated before you when France could give and provide the best education by eminent minds.


Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier the week of 4/3/2022 that “three main factors are likely to take inflation higher” going forward.

“Energy prices are expected to stay higher for longer,” “pressure on food inflation is likely to increase,” and “global manufacturing bottlenecks are likely to persist in certain sectors.”

Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

“Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending,” Lagarde said in a speech in Cyprus on Wednesday March 30. 2022.

“Soaring energy costs sparked by the war in Ukraine have caused a surge in consumer prices within the eurozone, the EU’s statistics agency said on Friday 4/1/2022. Annual inflation in the eurozone reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% in February, Eurostat reported. It is the fifth straight month that inflation in the eurozone has set a record. Energy prices increased 44.7% in March, up from 32% in February, according to the Eurostat, as the European Union [European Commission] found itself embroiled in an oil-and-gas crunch caused by tensions with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The rise in inflation is increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise its key interest rate.

Here we go at last recognized the failure of her own policy:

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned Wednesday 30 March, 2022 that a prolonged Ukraine conflict will mean the cost of living will continue to soar, hampering hopes of a post-COVID recovery.”

Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

The Inflation is here and will endure with Russia Requesting the use of Rubles in all international purchases and China will follow this course and next is India. It is just a matter of time that BRICS Development Bank will advance its pawn toward becoming a global player in the international finance space with no borders like all these western based international financial institutions.

Currently the and what Ms. Presidente Christine Lagarde is pursuing “Monetarist Policy” added to the reasons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions are all playing in the field of the rise and consolidation of alternative and parallel financial institution coming from emerging economies and their followers. Whatever the importance of these reactions, there a disruptive impact and dispersion as well as diversion of financial transactions that are going to change the international financial system and all the related regional banks not only as regulator of the market but more importantly as a hub of all the financial transactions related to international trade and the value of goods exchanged.


Russia★China & Europe★USA

Russia wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian natural gas in Rubles. That’s a new directive from President Vladimir Putin … Continue Reading →


Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and the sanctions that followed have meant spiraling energy costs across the EU. Inflation in Germany is at its highest since reunification in 1990.

These are numbers that any Media outlet can verify by having their own estimates and calculations. In fact, on Friday April 1, 2022, Germany’s largest banking institution said rising inflation could be hard to stem because of an energy price shock sparked by sanctions that are exacerbating supply chain problems.

“The rhino in the room has been unleashed and may now prove difficult to stop,” Deutsche Bank Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting said in a research note, adding that consumer price rises in the United States had breached 7%.

“Longer-term issues such as the shrinking workforce and the growing share of GDP generated by labor-intensive services are likely to remain and inflation is therefore unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level in the years to come.”

“In the developed economies, already elevated inflation rates may now be driven even higher, given the conflict-induced oil and gas price shock. Sanctions, as well as businesses’ halting their operations in Russia, are exacerbating supply chain problems.” Nolting said economic growth in the United States would outstrip that of the eurozone in 2022 and 2023 because of the conflict in Ukraine and the European Union’s dependence on energy imports.

Multiple Sources: dw, jsi/nm (AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP)


Attn.: Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank
For sure that oil surge in price has a direct impact on the inflation push up through:
 
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence IN BIZZARE BAZZZAR
➡️ disruptions to international trade NOT NEW

Inflation came from the monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank since 5 years ago and from factors that were not tackled during their rise, including the Pandemic

So where is the contingency strategy?

Risks have not completely disappeared, because progress in immunization remained slow in many parts of the world, pressures on global supply chains and rising prices for energy posed new challenges to the strength of the recovery and the outlook for inflation / THIS ASSESSMENT IS FROM 2021.

Since 1 November 2019 you are at the ECB So please do not blame the present time.

Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank

Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia.

Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in Europe but to the trade partners of the European Countries. Energy prices are rising, threatening household budgets and corporate profits (except for the energy sector). In addition, the expected disruption of sanctions against Russia and Belarus will impact trade flows, which could further dampen the global economy, and Europe will be the first to suffer.

Russia was dependent on SWIFT, some 300 Russian banks and other financial institutions use the SWIFT system, and Russia is ranked second (behind the United States) in number of users of this platform. The reason for the high level of dependence stems from Russian energy exports which are denominated in US dollars. For this, the European Commission was reluctant to ban #Russia from SWIFT due to the dramatic impact it would have – on oil prices. Some fear this will create systemic global financial risk. For Russia, given its geographical location and the diversity of its international partners and the support it currently receives from China for its international transactions, the impact expected and even qualified as “Nuclear Financial Bomb” by Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy,  will not have the effects desired or expected by the rest of the Western European Leaders.


BRICS and the Building of Financial Great Wall – 🌎 ★ GLOBAL 🌎★🌎 LEVERAGE ★ 🌎

Update: April 3, 2022 – 12:37 AM Pacific Time Originally published at LinkedIn on August 31, 2015: Said El Mansour


In fact, Russia has not been completely banned from SWIFT entirely – the targets of the bans are selected aiming specific banks, which appears to be intended to make it more difficult to avoid previous sanctions imposed on these banks. Energy exports are apparently excluded from these sanctions, although there is a risk at the level of each transaction of the energy exports that ca be more difficult to negotiate and settle, which can always cause the rate of inflation to implode, especially for energy, metal and grain prices.

Better to find other financial instruments to support the Growth and the Productivity of European Firms especially the Women, Mid Sized and Small companies that they still have to compete at the level of the international market with the oligopolies and the conglomerates that do not respect any national border, just remember what has predicted JJSS in his famous plaidoyer for the construction of Europe with allegiance to these giants transnational challenges.

Ms. Christine Lagarde with the financial policies you have been advocating in regards to the inflation and the position you took, that is “Wait and See” is an evidence that you have not completely turned the page of the IMF and the World Bank influences in designing strategies of recovery and stimulation of growth that they included in their conditionalities toward developing countries and now you are applying for European countries.

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. – Update 3/5/2022


Monetarism, Central Bank and Developmentalism

European Central Bank


Updated 12/1/2021

KEY POINTS

  • Headline inflation on Friday came in at 4.1% for this month, according to preliminary data from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat.
  • This was the highest level since July 2008, according to Reuters data, and was ahead of a consensus forecast of 3.7%. September’s figure had come in at 3.4%.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde said Thursday that rising energy prices, the recovery in demand and supply bottlenecks are currently pushing up inflation.

Euro zone inflation rises to 4.1% for October, hitting a new 13-year high

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.


Madame la Présidente de European Central Bank

The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.

Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.

The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.

Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.

The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone. This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.

Finally, a voice is expressed on the reasons for the passage and the continual retrograde of the formerly colonized countries from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries and currently sinking into the level of subcapitalist countries.

This subcapitalization was accentuated by the globalization of direct and indirect foreign investments and their impact on social structuring and the consolidation of local elites which facilitate the internalization of the demands of international financiers. Poverty has consolidated and spread like an economic virus in subcapitalist societies weakening their participation in world growth thus accentuating recessions and even current inflation.

The manipulation of the prices of raw materials as well as the prices of consumer products is the result of this complicity between the supporters of the Global Supply Chain and these governing elites, including national banks and transnational financial institutions. The United States has launched an investigation into this matter.

Likewise, the Eurozone is witnessing an inflation rate of 4.9% from one year to the next, which has never been the case since the launch of the euro in 1999.

Finally a voice is talking about the reasons how formerly colonized countries emigrated from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries to reach actually the statute and the privilege of currently sinking into the deep subcapitalism.

Euro zone inflation figures for November are historic. At 4.9% year-on-year, European inflation has never reached such levels since the launch of the euro in 1999. Rising commodity prices (energy prices rose 27% on year in November), combined with strong economic growth and the emergence of bottlenecks in industry continue to explain this an extraordinary return of inflation that no one believed until a few months ago. Recall that the dominant theme before the Covid crisis in early 2020 was the risk of deflation which had threatened the United States and Europe, like Japan, for decades.

With such figures the dilemma of the ECB and all the central banks becomes more and more untenable. How to stop extreme monetary policies of zero interest rates along with liquidity injections in order to fight against this inflationary peril can generate high risk of recession and threatened purchasing power and consumption.

Neither the ECB nor any other central bank has yet made a decision, and is unlikely to do so quickly given the uncertainties over the Omicron variant and its potential consequences for growth and financial markets.

The official objective of the ECB is still … 2%, while another major risk will then appear: the impact of massive rate hikes on debt service. If interest rates are skyrocketing, situation will get out of control and will require a budgetary austerity.

FORECASTING IN TIME OF PEACE AND WRONGLY

Updated 27/11/2021

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank 19h • Edited • 19 hours ago

We do not expect the current rise in inflation to last, I explained in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung editor Gerald Braunberger.

A couple of other important points covered:

➡️ If we at the European Central Bank were to tighten monetary policy now, we would expect to see the impact in 18 months’ time. But our forecasts show inflation falling back by then.

We would cause unemployment and not have countered the current high inflation. I would find that wrong.

➡️ Interest rates can rise when we see inflation reaching our 2% target over the medium term, durably and sustainably – meaning not just for a short period of time.

Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021

Madame Lagarde, inflation rates are increasing around the world. Inflation in the United States is 6.2%, while in Germany a rate of close to 6% is expected for November. Is inflation spiralling out of control?

At the European Central Bank we are of course monitoring that very closely. And not only because our primary objective is maintaining price stability and inflation is a crucial indicator of that. But also because we know that inflation affects people. Those who are less privileged and less well off are the ones who suffer the most from inflation. That’s why we need to keep looking at it very carefully.

Do you feel any effects of rising inflation in your own daily life?

Of course, the rise in energy prices is the most noticeable. After all, energy price inflation now accounts for around half of the high inflation rates. You can’t help noticing the price increase when you fill up your tank at a petrol station or buy heating oil for the winter. As a French person, I keep a close eye on the prices for good bread at the bakery. That stands out at the moment and is making many people worried – but we expect that this rise in inflation will not last. It will subside next year. We expect that the inflation rates will start to fall from as early as January.

What makes you so sure? Won’t there be second-round effects, if the trade unions demand higher wages to compensate for the higher prices?

Judging by what we know from surveys of employers and trade unions so far, no strong inflationary pressure is to be expected from that front for the time being. The negotiated wage settlements have been very moderate so far. For next year, somewhat higher wage demands are partly to be expected. But based on what we are seeing, the settlements should not be on a scale that might trigger a wage-price spiral.

Do you not think that employees could become nervous and nonetheless demand compensation for inflation if inflation rates now hit a level that has not been seen for many years?

That does not seem to be the case at the moment. And if we look at inflation expectations, both those which can be derived from the financial markets and those resulting from surveys, then most people do not expect higher inflation in the longer term. Inflation expectations have risen, but they are below our inflation target of 2%. We don’t see any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.

Do you personally never have any doubts that inflation might persist for longer than your experts are currently predicting?

I ask myself this question again and again. To answer it you have to consider what is driving the current high rates of inflation. I would distinguish three groups of driving factors. The first are statistical base effects which are related to the pandemic, such as the VAT reduction in Germany last year and its reversal, which are now sharply pushing up the price increase relative to the previous year. Similar passing pandemic effects can be seen in respect of package holidays, for example. These factors will automatically disappear next year, as they will fall out of the year-on-year comparison. Supply bottlenecks are a second group of drivers. Demand surged after the end of the first lockdown whereas supply is still constrained. These bottlenecks in, say, computer chips, containers and road haulage capacity are obviously persisting for longer than we had initially thought. But the situation will gradually improve next year in that respect too. The third group is energy prices. We expect that energy price developments will at least stabilise next year.

But surely nobody can know for certain how oil prices, say, will develop next year?

We at least see good reasons why the strong price increase in energy will not last into the second half of 2022. There is in any case no expectation in the oil futures markets that the price increase will continue. But we are seeking to evaluate and consider as many sources of information on this topic as we can.

Read the full conversation Click here

Christine Lagarde • FollowingPresident of the European Central Bank 2w • 2 weeks ago

At today’s Eurogroup meeting we discussed the positive economic outlook in the euro area, with monetary and fiscal policies supporting a strong recovery. We are confident that the current higher inflation is transitory. We also exchanged views on the goals of a digital euro.


Response of / Reponse de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

In a world subdivided with respect to natural resources and by the degree of participation in the aggregate supply and demand, the signs of the crisis represent only indicators for the international financial institutions whose firm belief is that the market will eventually be capable of correcting its excesses, even going so far as to adopt the “new paradigm” thesis.

With this self-assurance based on the belief that growth now passes through increasingly long economic cycles and swift oscillations with higher development rates, with low inflation and increased productivity, thanks to efficiency and innovation brought about by new technologies.

Rostow would be delighted and Keynes would be impressed while Friedman would be relieved, all without any consideration for the development of the human factor.

For these decision makers, there are collateral damages in the form of frequent financial misadventures, with all the human and political tragedies that they entail, they remain only inevitable misadventures on the way to the economic El Dorado.

The interest rate serves as a lever such as the “Invisible Hand” which indirectly regulates any market integrated in the financial and commercial world. It is widely accepted that financial instability is deeply rooted in the financial crisis affecting the functioning of markets which imposes recommendations on emerging and developing economies with the sole aim of making them beneficiaries of loans and financial transfers.

These indirect capital movements serve to alleviate the impact of expenditures and deficits resulting from investments undertaken by emerging and developing countries in the establishment of infrastructure and transformative operations in order to be able to compete with their peer countries for the attractivity of foreign direct investments.

The broad incentives and financial facilities offered to foreign investors coupled with the infrastructure spending added to the low return received in exchange for heavy investments and long term depreciation all reduce the income of their treasuries. States of developing economies are thus reduced to reach the ceiling on external debt.

However, some time ago, even the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank recognized that a large number of their interventions did not benefit emerging and developing countries which are going through a very severe crisis, and that the medicine administered in the form of Hiring of consultants had disastrous second-effects and the prescriptions presented in the form of recommendations proved to be poisonous and even final as overdoses.

Dans un monde subdivisé par rapport aux ressources naturelles et par le degré de participation dans l’offre et la demande globale, les signes de la crise représentent seulement des indicateurs pour les institutions financières internationales dont la croyance ferme et qu’à terme le marché serait capable de corriger ses excès, allant même jusqu’à adopter la thèse du « nouveau paradigme ». 

Avec cette auto-assurance est basée sur la croyance que la croissance passe désormais par des cycles économiques de plus en plus longs et des taux de développement de plus en plus élevés, avec une faible inflation et une productivité accrue, grâce à l’efficacité et l’innovation apportées par les nouvelles technologies.  Rostow en serait ravi et Keynes serait impressionné alors que Friedman serait soulagée, le tout sans aucune considération pour le développement du facteur humain. 

Pour ces décideurs, il existe des collatéral damages sous forme de mésaventures financières fréquentes, avec toutes les tragédies humaines et politiques qu’elles entraînent, elles n’en demeurent que des mésaventures inévitables sur la voie de l’eldorado économique.  

Le taux d’intérêt sert comme levier telle que la « Main Invisible » qui régule indirectement n’importe quel marché intégré dans le monde financier et marchand. Il est largement admis que l’instabilité financière est profondément enracinée dans la crise financière affectant le fonctionnement des marchés qui impose des recommandations aux économies émergentes et en développement dans le seul but d’en faire des bénéficiaires de prêts et de transferts financiers.  Ces mouvements de capitaux indirects servent à alléger l’impact des dépenses et des déficits résultant des investissements entrepris par les pays émergents et en voie de développement dans la mise en place d’une infrastructure et des opérations transformatrices afin de pouvoir rivaliser / concurrencer avec leurs pairs pour l’attraction d’investissements directs étrangers.

Les larges incitations et facilités financières offertes aux investisseurs étrangers ajoutées aux dépenses d’infrastructure ajoutées au faible rendement reçu en échange d’investissements lourds et à long terme d’amortissement réduisent les revenus des trésors.  Les États des économies en développement sont ainsi réduit au plafonnement de l’endettement extérieur.

Pourtant, il y a quelque temps, même le Fonds Monétaire International et la Banque Mondiale ont reconnu qu’un grand nombre de leurs interventions non point profité aux pays émergents et en développement qui traversent une crise très sévère, et que la médecine administrée sous forme d’envoi de consultants a eu des second-effets désastreux et les prescriptions présentées sous forme de recommandations se sont prouvées empoisonnantes et même finales comme des overdoses.


Some of my publications related to the topic addressed by Presidente Christine Lagarde can be used as complement for my aforementioned comment while presenting the role of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in shaping the evolution of the World Economy with emphasis on the economies of the Southern countries. (The articles are written en Français et/and in English).


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Russia★China & Europe★USA

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Nationalism Versus Liberalism: War and Finance in Europe

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European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation

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Look at the Roots of Genocide: Russia – Ukraine War of Rhetoric

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Private: Petroleum & Other Energy Liquids

Débat sur la Monnaie: Economie Politique ou Politique Economique

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Changing World Economy

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Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. You ★ Analyst World Affairs ★ Predictive Studies and Formulations ★ Planning and Development ★ United States of America ★ Europe ★ France ★ Morocco ★ China ★ Sub-Saharan Africa ★


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Le futur de la cryptomonnaie #Cryptomoney #cryptomonnaie

Réponse de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. ★

For the moment it is a pure scam like the casinos. A currency which floats without direction, nor productive and growing added value and which is neither based on an monetary reserve.

This reserve should be a surplus of which several interbank transactions verify and sanction, control and increase its transfer base, convertibility [example of Central Banks and LIBOR] and achievements as a form of deposit, exchange, conversion , settlement, loan and support for productions integrated into the international regional, national and interbank exchange circuit.

Add to that, Cryptomania is not used for payment of debts, financial obligations such as taxes.

If all these procedures do not exist in the fiduciary identity and the financial value of Cryptomania, it cannot therefore claim an institutional financial legitimacy and legal monetary .

It is neither the number of participants, nor the level of transactions, nor the amount achieved, nor the slogans and propagandist speeches that will give legitimacy to the Cryptocracy and Cryptorobotech.

Waiting for Godot – Sidna Kdar for better

Crypto Casino Royal – CryptoMania

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Crypto-Monnaie et Monnaie

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Eurozone: Monnaie et Inflation

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Eurozone: Money and Inflation

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