Changing World Economy
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021
Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America
Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme
Le secteur informel du Pérou, du Brésil, de la Colombie comme au Mexique pour ne citer que les plus en vue, s’était érigé comme une alternative a l’inertie bureaucratique des Etats gouvernés .. Continue reading Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme
Within such range of informal sector operations, you have also to consider that many financial institutions are offering banking services without being a Bank this is the case of the Post Office – Barid.
The presentation here remains instructive and indicative of a reality that needs to be approached from inside the country not from the perspective of these international financial institutions that have their own motives in their soi-disant finding and recommendations that remained twisted by self-interest and self-promotion in regards to the solutions and the services they provide as well as the credit line they open for country-members of their organization.
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Lire ici la version de cet article en Langue Française de France: Economie Mondiale en Mutation
During the 1980s, the differences between non-Western countries and Third World countries became evident with regard to economic changes and progress at the level of the participation in the new industrial division of labor and the implementation of industrial strategy.
Since President Reagan, Free Trade and aggressive Liberal policies have flattened the national resistance and planted the seeds in the global playfield for the rise of oligopolies, monopoles and conglomerates in the most advanced economies. In parallel, the strategies of conditionality on the application of liberal policies and privatization defended by international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development where shoved in the throat of “Third World Countries,” have contributed directly in increasing poverty and inequalities in developing economies.
In advanced countries instead of having regulations and protection of the economic market forces, the principle of price reduction and affordability of goods for consumers was then defended allowing the rise of monopoles favored by acquisitions, mergers and absorptions which created dominant companies that extended their power in the political and government decisions while reducing the competition and the income of the States which both impacted the level of distribution and the increase of inequalities and poverty among the popular and workforce masses as well as within the underdeveloped countries.
East and Southeast Asia continued to grow rapidly by maintaining close ties with the world economy framed by the needs of the western European and north American countries, facilitating the redeployment of products made in Western countries which in light of international integration they were thus competing within their own market by local, regional and international products.
“As a result, the world faced a difficult global economic situation as it entered the 1980s – a situation marked not only by high inflation and unemployment (internal imbalances) in developed countries, but also by large account deficits. Current balance of payments (external imbalance) in many developed and developing countries. In addition, lower demand in developed countries has resulted in lower commodity prices and worsening terms of trade for many developing countries that depend on commodity exports. Given the difficult economic situation, many countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, have seen an increase in debt levels in an effort to maintain economic growth.
In part the abundant recycling of petrodollars by financial institutions in developed countries contributed to the increase of debt of Third World economies. The sharp rise in interest rates in the United States of America to combat inflation at the turn of the decade raised the cost of servicing debt and caused debt crises in many countries. ” Read more at …. Reflection on development policy in the 1970s and 1980s -25 August 2017
This concentration of trade and industrial relations made the developing countries to view the Bretton Woods institutions as exclusive clubs of the rich and as instruments for enforcing unjustified political conditionality. Multilateral economic institutions: the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have also been the subject of substantial ambivalence.
In such a context of international institutional pressure, the opening and liberalization of the economy were imposed as good policy and the Milky Way to demand global integration. Thus, liberalism allied to the internationalization of the division of labor and to a selective redistribution and localization of foreign investment was seen as the only path to success and progress. Therefore, the acceptance of the developed world and its financial institutions by third countries has become the example to adapt and follow.
Rehabilitation of Developing Countries was attempted through the Recommendations requested by International Financial Groups. Developing countries had pursued strategies that led to macroeconomic imbalances and strong state intervention. Middle-income Latin American countries suffered severe shocks and were forced to implement reforms to reverse the effects. While Africa has remained largely dependent on international largesse. Developing countries are still faced with correcting the effects of these handicaps and implementing stabilization policy and stimulus measures, balances of payments and basic reforms of the exchange rate regime, liberalization and privatization.
On the other hand, the economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries, accompanied by sharp fluctuations in import demand, contributed to the economic difficulties of the least developed countries (LDCs), particularly in the early 1980s and again in the early 90
Countries heavily dependent on commodity exports have been little affected, especially oil exports (Gulf War). Even diversified exporters have also suffered, such as the exporting countries of East and Southeast Asia.
In terms of the development of financial markets, the high interest rate that prevailed in the early 1980s sharply increased the debt service ratio, the external debt service and contributed to the debt crisis. The Reaganomics crossed the Southern border and landed the Mexican crisis of August 1982, (Nationalization of banks and more dollars changed, transition between Portillo and the administration of Madrid). A sharp contraction in lending occurred after the Mexican crisis. DelaMadrid followed a neo-liberal policy coping the Northern Neighbor the Reaganomics.
Mexico’s currency crisis was fundamentally a short-term “monetary management problem, declared Mahathir Mohamed of Malaysia. In addition, Mexico was crossing a border of political elimination such as the killing of Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu a former governor who was serving as secretary-general of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI., was shot to death on a busy street in Mexico City on Sept. 28, 1994. The killing added to the bloody shocks of an election year that had already characterized by the regime’s inability to contain the violent antics of a handful of uprising by the Zapatista considered as “rag-tag bandits in Chiapas and the assassination of the first PRI presidential candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio.
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America
Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Celebración de 25 años de interés en México Celebration of 25 years of Interest in Mexico – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America
In fact, negative transfer for all of Latin America in 1983 and stayed that way in the 1990s. For Africa, the net transfer to private creditors turned negative in 1983, but dependence on commercial loans was less pronounced, offset by official flows. Short politics have become the means to address these structural problems.
To reverse current account deficits, which forced real exchange rate adjustments, the 1980s saw dramatic devaluation and changes in exchange rate regimes in developing countries. All regions except Europe experienced stagnation in exports during the global recession in the early 1980s and again in 1985-86. As a result, macroeconomic adjustment policies had become necessary, such as the implementation of measures aimed at reducing real public expenditure, increasing revenues, slowing wage growth and controlling the growth of the money supply, generally by bias or with the effect of increasing real interest rates.
The debt crisis of the 1980s led to severe recessions in almost every country in Africa and Latin America. The World Bank and the IMF in concert with other international financial institutions have made Africa to dance to their own disastrous melodies and tunes and therefore the IMF is one of the most controversial institutions who had aggravated the public policy and made African countries to accentuate social problems and financial deficits, Africa is still paying a high price for the conditionality policies imposed by the World Bank and the IMF.
Therefore, developing countries in difficulty have faced strong pressure to avoid defaults and implement fiscal consolidation, often imposed by conditions for obtaining financial support. This has exacerbated the cost and duration of the crisis. The emphasis has been on austerity and rapid budget review, and the high social and economic costs are often overlooked. Governments have come under pressure to cut social spending and invest in infrastructure as part of the adjustment process, which has had long-term effects. After 1987, export growth resumed and Asian exports were strong, reviving the Western Hemisphere, which recovered. In Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa, it took more than a decade for the economy to recover, and since then the 1980s have been called a lost decade of development.
Opening the Door for the Global Integration and Effects of the International Crisis
Among advanced industrial states, the agenda for deeper integration is ambitious, which includes the harmonization of standards with the coordination of macroeconomic policies. In fact, it is the Research and Development sector in advanced technological fields of high added value that the difference and the gaps widened even within the groups of developed countries in terms of the international competitiveness of their product and the level of their economic growth. At the same time, this international competitiveness had ramifications and repercussions on the developing countries thus conditioning an adjustment trajectory for their frenzied race to adjust their economies in accordance with the demands of the advanced industrial countries.
These demands had largely focused on the legislative framework for the treatment of foreign direct investment in developing and sub-capitalist countries. The improvement in the foreign investment climate was therefore generally linked to the broader regulatory changes needed to align national practices with those of advanced industrial countries. For this reason, the rules governing these investments are seen as a component of the deep integration program based on a structural adjustment of national policies around a negotiated standard.
The free flow of goods and capital (not labor) is fairly well accepted among advanced industrial states as well as compensatory mechanisms that mitigate the social costs associated with an open economy. In developing countries, by contrast, national coalitions favoring a more open stance in the world economy were generally not consolidated.
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Regional Integration, Level for Global Competitiveness
Some have called the 1980s a lost decade for Latin America, if not for the rest of the developing world, both of which were characterized by economic problems and developments in political authoritarianism.
- Decline in the availability of external commercial loans at the start of the decade
- Strong pressure to adapt accordingly
- Regression of political bodies and freedoms:
- Broaden the definition of conditionality for multilateral and bilateral assistance
- Growing bilateral pressure on US trade policy
- Significant changes in expectations regarding the participation of developing countries in GATT
- Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Integration
- One of the consequences of the crisis is the incentive to attract foreign direct investment. In the 1970s, middle-income developing countries would depend on fairly easy access to external finance through European currency markets.
Direct Foreign Investment
To attract foreign investment, we start to talk about regional integration and integration into international rules and standards.
- In Latin America, the effects of this impact are liberalization and privatization and reforms of regulatory systems.
- Great impact and influence of advanced industrial states and foreign investors on what government can do.
- One way to make the reversal of these policies costly.
- IMF with the support of the World Bank and the regional development bank, negotiation of programs and conditions for more loans: adjustment policies or what is called the Tight Belt Policy.
The World Bank and the IMF believe that structural adjustment such as trade opening and liberalization, regulatory regimes and other reforms can benefit least developed countries. The interference of international lending agencies and their diktat imposed on underdeveloped and less developed economies has helped to shape a status of subcapitalist condition and constitution for indebted countries and to integrate into the global circuit of international lending.
Social effects of adjustment policy in LDCs
During the 1980s, growing recognition of the reforms also became a springboard for the donor to feed the LDCs. The exam is part of the donation. Japanese aid is in line with the trend of “political dialogue” between donors and recipients.
At the geo-strategic level, the policies of “containment” and neutralization of currents of thought that could call into question the predominance of liberal strategies for conquering international markets had succeeded in thwarting all attempts to create and establish economic development alternatives based on the national model and a Third World vision. Thus, despite the advance and the creativity of several Masters in economic development, such as G. Destanne de Bernis, François Perroux, the Swede Myrdal, the Argentinian Prebisch and the Brazilian Celso Furtado and the Hungarian Tibor Mende, the liberalism continued to sail and survive all social reforms even by resorting to coups, boycott and cover-actions if not the outright elimination of the leaders of the non-aligned or liberation movements national economic. (The author Said El Mansour Cherkaoui had the privelege to conduct his doctoral research among teams led by Directors of Research and Professors such as G. Destanne de Bernis and Celso Furtado respectively at the Institut de Recherche Economique et Planification of Grenoble University and at the Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amerique Latine, Sorbonne University, Paris)
A work of undermining nationalist militants considered to be leftists was undertaken throughout a long period with the objective of “pure and simple purification” of individual resistance and mass movements of the questioning of political and economic foundations, social, cultural and even religious Liberalism Made in the West.
From the start of the debt crisis to the start the eighties Third World countries, and especially the most indebted countries in Africa and Latin America, posted a some cases severe deterioration of social conditions, a increasing level of absolute poverty, a partial collapse of social and physical infrastructure, increased crime and internal disturbances. The per capita income of indebted countries have fallen by a seventh since 1980 and that of sub-Saharan African countries by a quarter?
In Africa, the investment ratio, which gives an indication of future growth prospects, fell to level recorded in the mid-1960s and in some countries is no longer sufficient to maintain the capital of the economy Stock.
In the most indebted countries, real wages are now lower than in 1982 (38% less in Mexico and 21% less in Brazil) and unemployment has increased due to slowing economic growth. Public spending fell by 18% in indebted countries and public investments have been reduced by 35%, compromising growth prospects and to a deterioration of social indicators.
For example, most developing countries cut spending health care and education and reduces the quality of utilities in these areas. Per capita expenditure on education in Latin America is now lower than early eighties and the capital expenditure for educational institutions now represent only a fraction of What it was. The same goes for the health service, with the result that the drop in infant mortality in Third Countries of the world have slowed down and global mortality is again slightly up. Nutrition has also deteriorated again in many countries, particularly due to the agricultural producer prices.
Big money bomb of one hundred dollar bills with a hot wick. Shortly before the explosion. The concept of international financial currency crisis
the World Bank and IMF and other international banks demanded payment of interest and debt service, which in many cases accounted for 25% and more of the value of total exports from indebted economies.
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There is now a wider trend towards critical literature on the Third World to blame the adjustment programs prescribed by the IMF or the World Bank for these unfavorable developments, since they all require fairly severe cuts in budgetary expenditure and other measures to curb demand and guide less developed economies to exports, leading to a decline in real wages, a temporary increase in unemployment and the destruction of national production capacity. The implementation of the programs also takes place responsible for the rise of internal conflicts and repression in developing societies. On the other hand, we often read that democratization and adjustment are irreconcilable or that only authoritarian regimes are able to execute typical IMF programs.
A spiral of indebtedness ensued, the repercussions of which went beyond economic growth and the balance of external accounts, they resulted in the worsening of the living conditions of the already poorest social strata in developing countries. For this reason, donor countries have generally left issues of policy conditionality in the hands of international financial institutions. Source: Institut for AIIgemeine 0berseeforschung, Hamburg, West Germany, INTERECONOMICS, May / June 1990
Social inequalities, the wage bill and international trade
The World Bank and Social Inequalities
In a major speech to the National Press Club in Washington on October 10, 2007, Robert Zoellick formulated what he described as “six strategic themes in support of the goal of inclusive and sustainable globalization” that he described. proposed to guide the future work of the World Bank:
First, the World Bank Group faces the challenge of helping to overcome poverty and stimulate sustainable growth in the poorest countries, especially in Africa …
Second, we must address the particular problems of states emerging from conflict or seeking to avoid state collapse …
Third, the World Bank Group needs a more differentiated business model for middle-income countries …
Fourth, the World Bank Group will need to play a more active role in promoting regional and global public goods that transcend national borders and benefit many countries and citizens …
Fifth, one of the most notable challenges of our time is how to support those who seek to advance development and opportunities in the Arab world …
Finally, while the World Bank Group has some of the attributes of a finance and development enterprise, its vocation is much broader. It is a unique and special institution of knowledge and learning. It collects and provides valuable data. Yet it is not a university – rather it is a “brain trust” of applied experience that will help us address the other five policy themes.
“For decades, scholars of international security and politics have debated the emergence of a multipolar system. It is time to recognize the economic dimension of this concept. After witnessing the disappearance of the “second world” in 1989, during the fall of communism, we observed in 2009 the end of what was called the “third world”: we now live in a new multipolar world economy. which is evolving rapidly, ”Zoellick said during a speech at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars in Washington, recalling that some had called the former President of the United States a“ missed opportunity ”. “We cannot afford to have the same geopolitical rhetoric as before. “
“Poverty continues to be rife and must be tackled. Failed states still exist and must be taken into account. Global challenges are intensifying and must be met. However, we need to approach these issues from a different perspective, ”said Zoellick. “Outdated notions of developed countries and third worlds, donors and seekers, leaders and followers no longer correspond to reality. »Statement made on April 14, 2010 by the President of the World Bank Group Robert B. Zoellick.
Thus, developed and developing economies have experienced an increase in income inequalities within them since the 1980s. Trade has become more globalized over the same period. Many studies have sought to determine whether globalization has contributed to the intensification of inequalities. To do so, they sought to identify the various channels through which the development of international trade could influence wage dynamics [ [FMI, 2007; Pavcnik, 2011]. Lire plus dans: Le commerce international accroît-il les inégalités ?]
According to the most recent estimates, 10% of the world’s population lived on less than $ 1.90 per day in 2015, which represents 734 million people. This rate reached almost 36% in 1990, or 1.9 billion people.
But this trend is likely to be reversed in 2020, due to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the fall in oil prices. Poor populations will bear the brunt of the consequences, including job cuts, declining remittances from migrant workers, price hikes and disorganization of education and health services, among others.
For the first time since 1998, poverty rates will start to rise again as the world economy slips into recession and the GDP per capita falls sharply. The current crisis threatens to erase all of the progress made over the past five years. Depending on a range of assumptions on the size of this economic shock, between 40 and 60 million additional people will fall into extreme poverty (less than $ 1.90 per day) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic , according to World Bank estimates. The global extreme poverty rate could increase by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points, reaching around 9% in 2020.
In addition, the proportion of the population living on less than $ 3.20 per day could increase between 0.3 and 1.7 percentage points and reach a low range of 23%, or in absolute value between 40 and 150 million more people. Finally, the share of the world’s population living on less than $ 5.50 a day could grow within a range of 0.4 to 1.9 percentage points, reaching 42% or more, which would represent between 70 and 180 millions of inhabitants. It should be noted that these projections are extremely volatile and subject to large variations from country to country (a).
FMI (2007), « Globalization and inequality », in World Economic Outlook, chapitre 4, octobre.
HELPMAN, Elhanan, Oleg ITSKHOKI, Marc MUENDER & Stephen REDDING (2012), « Trade and inequality : From theory to estimation », in VoxEU.org, 20 mai.
PAVCNIK, Nina (2011), « Globalization and within-country income inequality », in Making Globalization Socially Sustainable, rapport de l’OIT et de l’OMC, chapitre 7, septembre.
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021
Sciences Po, Grenoble
Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris
Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III